Here's where I speculate on what the Crim is going to be like.
First off, I haven't run it since '06, and my time was 1:37. Which i really think i should be able to beat, although I'm not certain by how much- doing a nine minute pace today wasn't "easy" and it's a much easier course. But here's how I see a couple of different ways to run the race going...
Run it easy; probably just shy of a 10 minute pace. Don't work hard, enjoy the experience, wave to the crowds and people watch. Hit the end and not feel tired, winded, or in any way overly stressed. Predicted time: 1:36
Run it moderate: this would probably start off trying to be easy, but then ramping up the effort until I fall into something approaching marathon effort. Possibly climbing to Half marathon effort. On this course I could figure that to be probably 8:30-45 pace, averaging in the race something just over a nine minute mile. At a guess, 9:15-30. Predicted time 1:33
Run it moderate-hard: if the race day feels really good, and the temps are low, I'd probably start off trying to run easy but really running moderate, and after the first couple of miles going into half marathon effort pretty quickly. If the Bradly's go well, and I'm feeling good through mile seven, perhaps even seeing what I've got left. Predicted time: 1:30
If things go extraordinarily well, somewhere in the 1:20s. I don't think it's impossible, considering my marathon pace in April put me below 1:20. But it's not April, and I'm not in that shape anymore, sadly.
Running it smart would be much happier. I can leave fast for another year.